The Muhoozi-Rwabwogo Feud: A Family Show for Uganda

The feud between Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba and Odrek Rwabwogo looks like a fight.

I don't believe it is.

It looks more like a family stage play.

The two men appear to be fighting over Uganda's future, but there is something strange about the fight. Both men belong to the same family. Both are inside President Yoweri Museveni's political system. And both are connected to the same power that has ruled Uganda for nearly 40 years.

So perhaps the real question is not who is fighting whom.

The real question is this:

Why are Ugandans being asked to watch a family fight while the rest of the country is kept outside the room where its future is being decided?

Rwabwogo is Museveni's son-in-law. He is married to Museveni's daughter, Patience. He also chairs PACEID, a presidential advisory body dealing with exports and industrial development, which Museveni created in 2022.

Muhoozi is Museveni's son and the Chief of Defence Forces.

So, this is not exactly a fight between two men who met yesterday at a bus stop.

They are both sitting very close to the family throne.

And the throne, unfortunately for Uganda, is not just a chair. It controls an army, a government, businesses, land, money and the political machinery built around Museveni since 1986.

Their disagreement has been played out through social media attacks, politicians acting as proxies, accusations of corruption and land grabbing, and now direct action by security forces.

Muhoozi rarely speaks publicly in the traditional way. He mostly speaks through X.

That means Uganda sometimes wakes up and discovers that a general has declared war on something from his phone.

It is a strange way to run a country.

In late August 2026, Muhoozi declared PACEID an "illegal organization" and threatened its members. He also warned media houses that hosted them. His actions reportedly included the detention of Matthew Bagonza, a close aide to Rwabwogo.

Muhoozi then posted a photograph of the detained man. The photograph showed Bagonza naked. Muhoozi joked about caning his stomach to help him lose weight.

This is the kind of political humor that makes you check the calendar to see if Uganda has accidentally entered the Middle Ages.

Muhoozi later said he was dissolving PACEID and moving its functions to Operation Wealth Creation, an organization associated with his uncle, Gen. Salim Saleh.

Rwabwogo pushed back.

He said Muhoozi had no authority to dissolve PACEID and that only Museveni could do so. He said Museveni had told him that no such order had been given. He also said Museveni denied knowing about or ordering Bagonza's arrest.

Muhoozi has said the opposite. He has claimed that Museveni instructed him to act.

And there sits Uganda.

Two men say the president told them two different things.

Meanwhile, the president himself has not publicly stepped forward to clear up the confusion.

It would almost be funny if real people were not being arrested.

This Fight Is Not New

Muhoozi has previously called Rwabwogo "Uganda's biggest thief."

Rwabwogo, meanwhile, has spoken about the direction of the country and called for more discipline, accountability and stronger institutions. He has also warned against people monopolizing Museveni.

They clearly do not like each other.

But their fight is bigger than two men who don't get along.

Muhoozi represents the military and security side of the Museveni system, together with his Patriotic League of Uganda mobilization group.

Rwabwogo represents a more civilian and economic side, with connections in business, government and the bureaucracy.

Neither man is really standing outside the Museveni system asking how Uganda can escape it.

They are both positioning themselves inside it.

That is why I think Ugandans should be careful about treating this feud as a battle between good and evil.

It may simply be a family argument over who gets to hold the keys after the old man leaves the house.

The Family Presidency

Museveni has not officially named his successor.

He supported his own re-election in 2026 and has left the question of 2031 open.

Muhoozi, however, has repeatedly said he intends to run in 2031. He also claims that his father supports him. That claim has not been publicly contradicted.

He has even spoken of getting 90 percent of the vote.

Ninety percent.

In Uganda, that number has a long history. Sometimes it comes from elections. Sometimes it comes from mathematics performed after the election.

But there is one thing that makes Muhoozi different from an ordinary politician.

He is the army commander.

The Ugandan military has been at the centre of political power since Museveni took power in 1986.

That makes the question of succession much more serious than a normal election campaign.

Rwabwogo has not declared that he wants to become president. He has networks among civilians, business people, bureaucrats and elites who may prefer a calmer and more institutional style of leadership.

But he does not command the military.

And in Uganda, that matters. A lot.

If the current political direction continues, one possible outcome is a managed transfer of power from father to son around or after 2031.

The Constitution or Parliament could be adjusted if necessary.

Nothing is guaranteed. Uganda has too many unpredictable characters for that.

Museveni's health could change things. Powerful people could resist. The military could divide. The public could revolt. Something unexpected could walk into the room carrying a very large chair.

But right now, Muhoozi appears to have the strongest institutional advantage.

Ugandans Are Watching

Ugandans are not united behind this feud.

Many are not choosing between Muhoozi and Rwabwogo.

They are simply watching two relatives fight over the same house.

And many Ugandans see Muhoozi as the face of the violence, torture and repression associated with the security system.

His social media posts showing detained and tortured-looking people have created an image that will be difficult to erase.

Rwabwogo appears to be trying to separate himself from that image.

That is politically useful.

If Muhoozi becomes known as the violent one, then perhaps the rest of the family can say:

"That was Muhoozi."

Not us.

It is a clever family strategy.

Because the problem with political violence is that photographs have long memories.

And the people whose naked, bruised bodies have appeared on social media may one day become the ghosts that return to haunt the people who displayed them.

It would be much easier for the family if those ghosts belonged only to Muhoozi.

Not the whole family.

And Then There Is London and Washington

You cannot fully understand Uganda's political system without looking beyond Kampala.

For decades, London and Washington have had important relationships with Museveni's government. Western governments have often viewed Uganda as a useful military and security partner in a troubled region.

So, the question Ugandans should ask is simple:

Will the same Western powers that supported and worked with Museveni also support whoever comes after him from his family?

We do not know.

But their silence and continued engagement deserve attention.

Western governments sometimes impose sanctions over human rights abuses.

Yet Muhoozi can still travel to London for important family occasions, including his son's Sandhurst graduation.

That tells us something about how international politics works.

Governments have principles.

They also have interests.

And when interests and principles meet in a dark alley, principles sometimes discover that they have no space.

As long as the Museveni family remains useful to Western security interests, the photographs of torture and repression may be treated as an unfortunate problem.

But political friendships can change.

The moment a government or a family stops being useful, yesterday's photograph can suddenly become tomorrow's evidence.

The same photograph that nobody wanted to look at may suddenly be displayed on television screens in London and Washington.

People will ask:

"How did Ugandans live with this for so long?"

Ugandans may then have a simple answer:

We tried to tell you.

The Monster Who Cannot Be Controlled

The Muhoozi-Rwabwogo feud also creates another useful story.

It makes Muhoozi look like a man who has gone completely out of control.

A wild general. A man nobody can stop. A man fighting everyone.

A man trying desperately to grab the family leadership trophy before somebody else takes it.

But there is a problem with that story.

If Muhoozi is truly out of control, why has the family not stopped him?

His father can stop him.

The government can stop him.

The military hierarchy can stop him.

His family can stop him.

Yet he continues.

Perhaps the simplest explanation is also the most uncomfortable one.

Maybe he is not destroying the family system.

Maybe he is protecting it.

Maybe the family does not fear Muhoozi's actions as much as Ugandans are being encouraged to believe.

Maybe the argument itself is useful.

Because while Ugandans watch Muhoozi and Rwabwogo fight, something very important happens.

The question of who should lead Uganda after Museveni becomes a question about which member of the Museveni family should lead Uganda.

The rest of Uganda disappears from the conversation.

That may be the real victory.

And Then Comes the Family Meeting

Eventually, if history follows the usual script, the fighting may stop.

Perhaps Janet Museveni will call the two sides together.

Perhaps the family will reconcile.

The reconciliation will probably be presented as something done for Uganda.

And Ugandans will be told that the family has put its differences aside for the good of the country.

But what if the real achievement of this entire drama is that Uganda's presidential succession has already been reduced to two men from the same family?

That is the part Ugandans should worry about.

Because if Muhoozi becomes president, Rwabwogo remains inside the family and could even be a finance minister.

And if Rwabwogo somehow becomes president, Muhoozi could remain powerful, perhaps still controlling the military.

Either way, the family stays inside the house.

The rest of Uganda is left standing outside, looking through the window.

And perhaps that is what this feud was always about.

Not destroying the family.

Not saving Uganda.

But making sure that when the Museveni family finally decides who gets the presidency, Ugandans are already so tired of watching the family fight that they forget to ask the most important question:

Why is the presidency being treated like a family inheritance in the first place? — Yasin Kakande

Author of The Missing Corpse